Hawkeyes.org - Way Too Early Top 10 for 2010

by Brent Meyer
Hawkeyes.Org Columnist

None other than the New York Times and the San Jose Mercury News have offered early assessments of next year’s college football landscape. Part of the danger in these assessments is that they are exactly one week too early as the NFL provides underclassmen until Friday, January 15 to decide whether or not to come out. In light of the potential for a collective bargaining dispute or, if a strike is avoided, a 2010 rookie salary cap, there is some real danger here.

While Iowa may only have one player, Amari Spievey, still on the fence, others have many more players that are spending this weekend soul searching. For instance, the just defeated Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, have three players that are weighing their options and should all three go, Paul Johnson may go from return ACC title contender to mere bowl aspirant faster than Coach Johnson can say “Adrian Clayborn” in his southern drawl, which I’m guessing he doesn’t care to do right about now. Anyway, caveats aside, here is my “way too early” top 10:

1. Alabama—Like Madden, I think a team is the champion until someone knocks them off, which ties in nicely with my #2 pick.
2. Boise State—They won them all, just like Alabama. They return 21 of 22 starters and they are doing just about everything they could do to get considered for a title, which is to say they’ve scheduled a home game against the Rodgers brothers of Oregon State and a road game at FedEx field against Virginia Tech in early October 2010. Win them all again and I think they should get another invite for Glendale, just a later game time.
3. Ohio State—Terelle Pryor silenced the critics and the Buckeyes won a BCS game in a “rebuilding year,” which is defined in Columbus as a year when the best players are sophomores and juniors instead of seniors. For Big Ten fans worried about a Buckeye freeze out should the poll look like this and the top 2 win out, don’t worry. Call me cynical, but I don’t believe for an instant that Ohio State can go undefeated and miss out on a title shot.
4. Florida—No Tebow and they play Alabama during the regular season, which just might leave them out of the BCS altogether next year, but until they lose a regular season game, they’re in everyone’s top 5.
5. Texas—This is right about where things start to really tighten up. I’m not completely convinced a Big 12 champion will finish in the top 5 next year with a substantial amount of talent going to the NFL this spring, but the Longhorns as a potential Big 12 champion in 2010 get the early nod in the 5 spot.
6. Oregon—I realize the Ducks lost to the two Final Top 10 teams they faced this year and so placement at title contender heights next season may seem a little inflated. Meanwhile, when the program is rolling as they did in conference games this year, it is difficult to see the Ducks losing more than a game or two over the course of the season. With New Mexico and Portland State the two home non-conference games and an early contest in Knoxville, Tennessee versus a Volunteers team with a new quarterback, it’s easy to imagine a situation where Oregon goes undefeated or loses only at USC next season. Hence, placement at sixth right now.
7. Iowa—Finally, the Hawkeyes. To the initial point about the earliness of this poll, Iowa could be affected by an Amari Spievey departure, but less than by an early exit of Adrian Clayborn should he have chosen to make himself available for the NFL’s services. Hence, Iowa only has the leadership of returning players and the development of the offensive line as roadblocks to an even better 2010. Also, as mentioned above in the case of the Buckeyes, I can’t imagine the Big Ten ever losing a media war against the Western Athletic Conference and I also don’t know that you’ll have an undefeated SEC champion next year due to the Alabama vs. Florida regular season game as well as back-to-back road games the Tide play in Baton Rouge and Knoxville. In other words, win them all through this Thanksgiving and the Hawkeyes most likely have a one week wait for their National Title Game opponent to be named.
8. Miami (FL)—The “U” feels like the early candidate for over-hype, but I think they have more talent than we saw in the Champs Sports Bowl and Jacory Harris has a shot at the Heisman Trophy this fall if the 'Canes get rolling. The 'Canes rolled the Yellow Jackets this fall and I think Iowa may have given them the blue print to do it again this year, especially if the Yellow Jackets have some early exits. The other competitor in the ACC is likely Virginia Tech, but an early loss to Boise State, which is what I’m forecasting, would keep the Hokies out of the top 10 for much of the season.
9. USC—With Joe McKnight entering the NFL Draft, Pete Carroll may have avoided a second running back headache with the officials at the NCAA. Well, except lets be real here on Hawkeyes.org. Did the NCAA shut down OU football when QB Rhett Bomar was getting paid by a car dealership without doing the work? How about on-going sanctions with bite more than “retraction of wins” for Florida State University for their myriad violations? Ahh, no. Well then lets keep moving along here with the reality that SC probably isn’t going to miss out on any bowl invites and has a shot at a national title based on accumulated high school talent and great football coaching, with OR without Pete Carroll.
10. Wisconsin—The Badgers fill out the top 10 and missing Penn State again on their schedule, may be an upset of Ohio State at home, or Iowa on the road, away from a BCS game, and the Badgers would love to avoid a return trip to Orlando.

So there’s my list. If it would end up like this, here’s the likely bowl match-ups:

BCS Championship Game: Alabama vs. Boise State (the reddest game in college football history)
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Orange: Miami vs. Big East Champion
Fiesta: Texas vs. USC
Sugar: Florida vs. Iowa