Hawkeyes.org - Orange Bowl Preview - How to Swat a Yellowjacket

by Dr. Jay
Hawkeyes.org Editor

Only a couple days before the Hawks take on Georgia Tech in arguably Iowa's biggest game in half a century. At stake is a chance to validate this season's 9-0 start and national title contender talk, an opportunity for Kirk Ferentz's first BCS bowl win, Iowa's first "major" bowl win since 1959, and a little more respect for the Big Ten on a national stage. Let's face it fans, the outcome of this game will either announce the Hawks as a legitimate contender in the national picture, or further cement them in skeptics' eyes as a flash-in- the-pan sometimes-Big-Ten-title-contender. How will the game go for Iowa? Here's my take:

When Georgia Tech has the ball...
The most intriguing part of this game is Georgia Tech's run-happy steamrolling triple-option offense against Iowa's disciplined, hard-nosed defense. The Yellowjackets are #2 nationally in rushing yards, #11 in the nation in total offense and points per game, while Iowa is #10 in the nation in scoring defense. The three-headed monster of GT's offense starts with running quarterback Josh Nesbitt. If he doesn't keep it, he'll hand off or pitch to running back Jonathan Dwyer. And even if he doesn't give the ball to Dwyer, the big play pass threat comes from receiver Demaryius Thomas.

On defense, Iowa's front four are disruptive, especially DE Adrian Clayborn. Behind the line are 2 seasoned veteran linebackers in Pat Angerer and A.J. Edds. If the ball goes to the air, CB Amari Spievey is great in coverage, while safties Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood are expert interception hunters when coming over to help. Whether either GT's offense or Iowa's defense can come out and dominate the other will ultimately determine the outcome of the game. If the D-line of Iowa can disrupt the triple option and slow down the running attack of Georgia Tech, it will keep Iowa in the game. If not, the Hawks may be playing catch up all night.

When Iowa has the ball...
The Hawkeyes will be trying to piece together the jigsaw puzzle of players who were injured off and on during the season. Despite the potential rust from being off for over a month, this may be the healthiest the team has been since Week 6 vs. Michigan. QB Rick Stanzi is where the offense starts and ends. As he returns from an ankle injury, so too returns the confidence in his decision making, and never-say-die playmaking ability that brought Iowa back from behind to win many times this season. Though not as polished, Iowa has numerous weapons on offense. RB's Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher are both capable, now that they are healed from various injuries. Big Play receivers Marvin McNutt and Derrell Johnson-Koulianos can stretch the field vertically, and don't forget about TE Tony Moeaki who can be a gamebreaker on his own.

Georgia Tech has the opposite problem than Iowa. There is nothing all that flashy or specific about the Iowa offense to key on, so the Yellowjacket defense will have to be on the lookout for anything. Iowa has the tendency to run the ball early to set up the pass later on, so ACC defensive player of the year DE Derrick Morgan and the Tech line will likely look to stop that first. Overall, their defense has been solid, but still give up nearly 25 points per game, and have been prone to giving up big plays.

Kicking Game
Iowa has Ray Guy award finalist Ryan Donahue punting, averaging 41.3 yards per punt, and experienced though sometimes inconsistent place kicker Daniel Murray has made 18 of 25 field goals with a long of 48 yards. Georgia Tech punter Chandler Anderson has a 40.7 yard punt average, only he rarely gets the opportunity. Kicker Scott Blair is 14-19 all season on field goals, and one shy of perfect on 44 PAT attempts. His longest FG is 49 yards.

Coaching and Intangibles
Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is playing in his 6th January bowl game in 8 seasons and after a 38-17 loss to USC in the 2003 Orange Bowl is determined to do things right and follow the formula that got him a 31-10 win in last year's Outback Bowl. Paul Johnson leads Georgia Tech to their first BCS-level bowl since 1966, and their last bowl win was in the 2004 Champs Sports Bowl. Despite the tough offensive package, the extra time to prepare before the bowl game seems to help equalize the effectiveness of the triple option, as LSU stopped Tech cold in last year's Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

Georgia Tech comes in after winning the ACC title game, beating Clemson for the 2nd time this season. Iowa limps in with something to prove after dropping 2 of their final 3 games after Stanzi's injury, including the de-facto Big Ten title game, losing in OT at Ohio State on November 14th.

What Will Happen With Tech on Offense:
Georgia Tech will want to keep the ball and stay on the ground with long, scoring drives, putting pressure on Iowa's front 7 and making Iowa stay home to defend the running game. Should Iowa get greedy and try to get tricky on defense, Tech can throw the big play pass to Thomas. To counter this, Iowa needs to depend on their talented cornerbacks to defend Thomas one-on-one, continue to play their disciplined defense and not take chances, which Norm Parker doesn't do much anyway.

That said, if any adjustment to help stop the option were to be exercised, the Hawks are good enough in the secondary that in my opinion, they could put one CB (Spievey) permanently on Thomas plus have a safety dedicated to help and remove that threat with perpetual double-coverage. Since none of the other Jacket WR's have hardly any catches, Thomas is pretty much the only air option. An athletic linebacker like Edds can be either run support or pass coverage, so I'd let him play more of a safety role, and use Prater (or whoever is on the non-Thomas side of the field) or a "4th" linebacker as additional run coverage. As I said, Parker is loathe to try any stunts or blitzes, so I'm doubting this kind of adjustment would be implemented unless the front 4 for Iowa just find themselves unable to contain the run game.

Up front, Iowa's best bet to disrupting the Ramblin' Wreck running game is to get penetration into the backfield and force Nesbitt to make that pitch-or-keep decision early. The key to stopping the option is knowing as soon as possible whether it is a running or passing play. If Clayborn, Klug, Binns, and Ballard can pressure the QB early and make him commit, that takes a ton of pressure off the linebackers and defensive backs. Fortunately for Hawkeye fans, disruption from the front 4 DL players is an Iowa specialty.

What Will Happen With Iowa on Offense:
On offense, it would seem Iowa has a pretty good shot at scoring some points with a lot of their formerly injured players, including RG Dace Richardson, likely to be at near 100 percent for the game. Perhaps the biggest questions are, 1) how does Rick Stanzi do coming back from 2 1/2 games off, and 2) how does the overall offense jell after 6 weeks without a real game with all those myriad injured parts trying to re-integrate themselves as a cohesive offense. In the final week of preparation, it seems the O-line is toying with some different lineups, trying to offset the strength of Derrick Morgan at DE, and also neutralize a 6'7" 341 pound DT named T.J. Barnes. The possible shakeup involves putting Riley Reiff at RT so the bigger and more experienced RT Kyle Calloway can move to RG to take on Barnes.

If you believe what you read about the Big Ten being slow and plodding, then Iowa may have trouble with GT's speed, but they are the ACC and not the SEC champs. Iowa is significantly bigger and stronger in both trenches than the Yellowjackets. The physical play Iowa is used to in the Big Ten is more than GT is used to, and that's where Iowa's success starts. If Iowa's offensive timing can click, they may not need to do anything out of the ordinary to dominate the line of scrimmage and do what they do best, and by design...run the ball. Iowa would love to keep that Tech offense off the field, and if the Hawks can run effectively, keep the GT offense on the sideline, and get a lead, the game plays into Iowa's hands. Kirk Ferentz would like nothing more than to establish the run, get a good lead, sit on the ball, run the clock out, and force Georgia Tech to play catchup with the passing game - their least desirable option.

Iowa would be wise to get a jump on Georgia Tech and score early to take the southern "home crowd" out of the game, and also to force GT to play from behind and pass more than they prefer to. If the Yellowjackets turned to the two late-season Iowa losses as a blueprint for how to stop the Hawkeyes, they'll be surprised at how poorly those games represent Iowa's true ability. If Iowa can utilize the aforementioned rushing and passing weapons, and control the line of scrimmage, they can score points and keep the ball out of Nesbitt's hands. Some judicious use of forgotten man Tony Moeaki might also surprise the Tech defense, as they may have overlooked the success Iowa has garnered from their senior tight end early in the season. Even with both offenses straight up, the TE as a scoring option is one advantage Iowa's offense has over Georgia Tech, especially if Tony gets matched up against a slower linebacker.

Dr. Jay's Prediction:
National rankings don't much come into play. Both teams had great seasons, each with only two losses, and they are #9-#10 in the BCS rankings. Iowa had the faster start, stumbling down the stretch due to Stanzi's injury, while Georgia Tech had their first loss early, and despite a late loss to the in-state rival Bulldogs, finished strong including winning the ACC title game.

The kicking game is a wash, for the most part. Iowa has the tiny advantage in punting, but not by much. Field position will be important. Iowa needs Georgia Tech to have to go the full length of the field to score to maximize the opportunity for a turnover or execution error the Iowa defense can take advantage of. Short field opportunities for Tech will likely result in a high-scoring game where Iowa has to play from behind. Coach Ferentz had vowed that this Orange Bowl experience will be different from 2003 and his businesslike demeanor is in stark contrast to Paul Johnson's more casual attitude about being in a BCS game. Here's hoping that KF"s intensity and determination has translated to good practices and a must-win attitude for the players.

I look for Iowa to do their usual gameplan of trying to establish the run. With a size and strength advantage up front, I think the Hawks can do so. Nevertheless, with a lot of missing pieces trying to fit back together, I think the Hawks' timing will be a little off, and they may get off to a slow start. Similarly on defense, it will take a little time for the D to figure out the game-speed version of the Georgia Tech offense, and they may get burned a couple times in the first half. Being down 20-13 at half is just what the Hawks are used to, and with halftime adjustments, Iowa comes out in the 2nd half and wears down the Yellowjackets on both offensive and defensive lines, taking the game over. Tony Moeaki and Marvin McNutt both have big games, as does RB Adam Robinson. The defense shuts down the run game, and Iowa has another come-from-behind win to claim their first BCS victory. Iowa 29, Georgia Tech 23